Employment Trends
in Turbulent Times

From the Employment Roundtable
by Richard Bayer, Ph.D.

Recent months have brought great change and sometimes shock to the United States, and especially to New York City. We have experienced an economy likely in recession, hijackings and the terrible loss of life and property at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, a widespread biological weapons attack (anthrax), and a likely accidental plane crash in Long Island.

At our meeting just before Thanksgiving, members of The Employment Roundtable began with a discussion of the recent trends in the labor market.  Members always feel free to speak their minds since comments are never attributed to any single individual. There are representatives from business, think tanks, and government on The Employment Roundtable, so the remarks are worth noting:

· There is a strong inclination among employed workers to stay in their current positions whether they are happy or not. There is a fear of changing jobs given the current economy and the mindset of fear (or terror) in the wake of recent events.

· Employers generally do not realize that higher employee retention is temporary and may be masking serious problems. There will be ramifications to this when times are better; unhappy employees will eventually leave in greater numbers.

· Many companies have hiring freezes to protect the “bottom line.” These companies try to get the same work done with a smaller workforce. Measures of productivity may be improving, but at the cost of employee alienation.

· It is easier for people to find jobs if they can demonstrate ability to bring in new business.

· A job search will be shorter if individuals apply at lesser known and mid-sized companies. Many of these are still hiring.

Unhappy employees will
eventually leave
in greater numbers.

· The Five O’Clock Club teaches that people need 6 to 10 things in the works to find a job in a reasonable time. Five will fall away through no fault of their own. In these times, it helps to have more than 6 to 10 possibilities in the works, and to expect a little longer job search.

· Morale is slipping in many companies in light of recent mergers, the 9/11 tragedies, and the downturn in the economy. Leadership often ignores human issues.

· People who do employee training see an across-the-board interest in values and culture issues since 9/11; especially as they relate to common images and misunderstandings of Islam.

· The economy is not as bad as some think given recent events. Unemployment is only 5.4%, which is historically not a very high figure. 

The above nine observations capture much (though certainly not all!) of what is happening today in the labor market. We are experiencing a decrease in demand for labor, unlike the boom years of the last decade.

Based on these observations we can see that employees should probably not quit one job without having another lined up. Job seekers should expand their targets and be patient, but at the same time proactive. Employers should take action now to:

· anticipate better times
· boost employee morale, and
· attend to hidden labor problems. 

Members of
The Employment Roundtable

Stephen Atamanchuk, VP, Resource Planning and Development, Sithe Energies
Richard Bayer, Ph.D., Chief Operating Officer, The Five O’Clock Club 
Stuart Brody, Senior Counsel, Labor Attorney, Gibney, Anthony &Flaherty 
Gayle George, VP, Human Resources,
 Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson
Mary Gorman, Director of Human Resources 
Diane Kenney, SVP, Human Resources, Warner Music Group 
George Lumsby, Managing Director, Stratford Group
Patrick Oden, Managing Advisor,   Healthcare
Paul Orme, SVP, Worldwide Financial Services & Insurance, Mercator Software
Alan Richter, Founding Partner,
 QED Consulting 
Wendy Alfus Rothman, Managing Partner, The Wenroth Group
Marilyn Shea, Regional Administrator, 
 US DOL; Employment & Training Administration 
Frank Thoelen, CFO, The A Consulting Team 
Kate Wendleton, President,
 The Five O’Clock Club 
John Wieting, Regional Commissioner,
 Mid-Atlantic Region, US DOL;
 Bureau of Labor Statistics 
David Madison, Consultant to Roundtable,
 The Five O’Clock Club